Analyzing China-Japan Conflict, Sanctions Dynamics, and Taiwan’s Post-War Strategic Space from a Quantum Field Theory Perspective

Strategic Assessment Report

East Asian War Energy Dissipation Model

A Quantum Field Theory Framework for Analyzing a China–Japan Conflict, Sanctions Dynamics, and Taiwan’s Post-War Strategic Space

Executive Summary

This report integrates International Political Economy (IPE), War Studies, and Quantum Field Theory (QFT) energy-dissipation analogies to analyze how a China–Japan conflict combined with G7 sanctions could induce rapid systemic collapse within China, followed by a structural reorganization of East Asian order.

Key Findings:

• China’s “strong trunk, weak branches” configuration represents a high-tension, low-buffer, externally dependent field, making it prone to brittle-fracture collapse, not gradual decline.
• A four-layer sanctions regime (trade, technology, finance, energy/food) functions as QFT-style external potential, raising effective energy cost and causing VEV collapse.
• Under sustained sanctions, China may experience Soviet-speed or faster economic dissipation within 12–24 months.
• East Asia will undergo fission-type restructuring, strengthening the U.S.–Japan axis and accelerating Indo-Pacific integration.
• Taiwan will face three historic strategic opportunities:
  
1. Becoming the central hub of Indo-Pacific supply chains
2. Emerging as a quasi-security-architecture node state
3. Gaining unprecedented participation in global governance (technology, energy, communications)

I. Background and Scenario Framework

This report builds on five scenario assumptions:

1. China–Japan military clash occurs near the East China Sea / First Island Chain
2. U.S.–Japan Security Treaty activation brings U.S. involvement
3. G7 sanctions scale reaches 5–10× the Russia model
4. Conflict endures for 3–6+ months, without escalating to total war
5. Post-war East Asia undergoes structural reorganization

Within this scenario, we use QFT field-energy modeling to analyze the interplay of war × sanctions × systemic collapse.

II. Strategic Assessment

1. Modern warfare is determined by energy sustainment, not raw firepower

Missile reserves, drones, fuel, chips, cyber defense, medical logistics—

all converge to the same principle:

Sustainment capacity = combat capability.

2. China’s military power is strong, but its economy is a “unidirectionally coupled, low-buffer, externally dependent” field

In QFT terms, China’s economic structure is:

• High tension
• Low buffer capacity
• High external dependency
• Weak domestic-demand VEV

This constitutes:

A high-energy unstable field prone to collapse under external force.

Sanctions =

Effective potential ↑ → VEV ↓ → accelerated energy leakage → system collapse

3. Japan and the U.S. possess “external field-energy injection” capability

• Japan’s technology chains = stable and G7-reinforceable
• The U.S. is the world’s largest military-industrial and financial energy reservoir
• Together they form an external field providing infinite sustainment capacity

Result:

The Japanese/U.S. camp gains advantage in all long-duration scenarios.

III. The QFT Model: War as Energy Dissipation

1. War = high-speed field energy leakage

QFT dynamics:

• External perturbation → rapid energy dissipation
• VEV decreases
• Below critical VEV → phase transition

Real-world mapping:

• Missile, fuel, and chip consumption = energy depletion
• Sanctions = effective potential increase
• Capital flight, FX loss = energy leakage

When China’s economic VEV falls below threshold:

→ Confidence collapse (phase transition)

→ Financial reorganization (metastable symmetry breaking)

→ Social fragmentation (multi-vacuum competition)

This resembles brittle-fracture collapse, not recession.

2. Comparative QFT field characteristics: China vs. Japan + G7

Indicator	China Field	Japan + G7 Field
Energy resupply	Externally dependent	Unlimited reinforcement from allies
Technology field	Blockaded and downgraded	Supported by global high-tech ecosystem
Supply chain	Highly concentrated → brittle	Multi-centered → resilient
Financial field	Closed, panic-prone	Open and dollar-reinforced

China is a closed fragile field; Japan a stable open field strengthened by allies.

3. Four-layer sanctions as external field potential

• Trade blockade → field decay
• Tech cutoff → effective mass term ↑
• Financial sanctions → field energy collapse
• Energy/food blockade → base-field depletion

Superimposed external forces →

VEV destabilization → systemic phase transition.

IV. China’s Structural Failure

1. Strong trunk: export-oriented manufacturing as a single structural pillar

Over-dependence on U.S./EU markets + tech blockade →

one-pillar system → one-point failure → systemic collapse.

2. Weak branches: atrophied domestic demand field

• Negative-equity real-estate sector
• Extremely high youth unemployment
• Consumption downgrade
• Local fiscal crisis

Domestic VEV ≈ zero → no stabilizing ground state.

3. Four-layer sanctions chain effect

1. Trade → exports plunge → FX collapse
2. Technology → industrial downgrading
3. Finance → capital flight accelerates
4. Energy/food → social-stability risk surges

4. Collapse timeline under prolonged sanctions

• 0–3 months: Financial panic
• 3–6 months: Supply-chain fracture, job losses peak
• 6–12 months: Social unrest
• 12–24 months: Political fragmentation

V. Post-War East Asian Geopolitical Scenario

A China–Japan war + G7 sanctions will trigger:

• Formation of a U.S.–Japan–centered Indo-Pacific Security Mechanism (IPSM)
• Full Taiwan–Japan–U.S. supply-chain integration
• Semiconductor/AI/energy-security industries relocating out of China
• ASEAN emerging as a secondary supply-chain hub
• South Korea pressured toward deeper Indo-Pacific cooperation

VI. Taiwan’s Strategic Space After the Conflict

1. Supply-chain centrality: Taiwan as the core of the Pan-Japan–U.S. industrial network

Taiwan becomes the triangular hub of:

semiconductors + AI + defense technology.

2. Security architecture deepening: Taiwan as a “quasi-security node state”

Possible pathways:

• Institutionalized Taiwan–U.S. security consultations
• Normalized Taiwan–Japan defense cooperation
• Taiwan emerges as an Indo-Pacific Key Node State

3. Expanded participation in global governance

Taiwan can be integrated into:

• Digital governance alliances
• Semiconductor international frameworks
• Space monitoring + quantum-communication networks
• Global energy-security architecture (LNG & hydrogen)

VII. Policy Recommendations

Five strategic actions for Taiwan:

1. Establish a “Strategic Supply-Chain Security Bureau.”
2. Deepen Taiwan–U.S.–Japan military interoperability (C4ISR, drones, EW, logistics).
3. Build an “East Asian Quantum & Communications Security Center.”
4. Strengthen energy autonomy (LNG, renewables, hydrogen).
5. Position Taiwan as the “Indo-Pacific indispensable technology node.”

VIII. Conclusion

Using a QFT framework of energy dissipation and phase transition, we observe:

• China is not a stable great power, but a high-tension, low-buffer, externally dependent fragile field.
• Sanctions do not cause slow decline—they induce field collapse via layered external potential.
• The post-war East Asian order will strongly favor Taiwan.
• With early strategic positioning, Taiwan can emerge not merely as a survivor, but as a central architect of the new regional order.